Yeah, I don't see it selling over a million copies (PS3/360 combined) like the last game. I predict 500 000 copies total. Like you said, not everyone who bought the first game will buy this, and those who didn't get LoS1 will probably not jump in for the sequel. Well, some will, but I don't see many people doing that. This is, after all, not GTA or Assassin's Creed. Sequels generally don't perform as well as the first game.
Not quite. We're talking about a very different situation here.
MercurySteam had done well in establishing itself with its new Castlevania 'reboot'. Within the space of a single game, Lords of Shadow had managed to propel Castlevania into the major market spotlights, and had even taken off to a decent amount of critical acclaim. So, naturally, the series is now at the peak of its media hype, with gaming institutions and modern fans alike crowing in anticipation for the sequel. MS would be out of its mind not to take advantage of a situation like this one.
To top it off, ever since Cox announced the end of his involvement, LoS2 started to appear less as a generic, derivative sequel and more as MS's definitive take on Castlevania. In more ways than one, it's acting as a finale, and it's been generally received as such.
From what I've seen, Lords of Shadow isn't showing any signs of decline. I expect to see even higher sales for the sequel.
On top of that, one might wonder if releasing Mirror of Fate on consoles is such a great idea. Modern gamers, unfamiliar with the LoS saga might try it and decide that LoS is not for them (even if they would potentially like LoS2 much better. They would write the series off as a rough-looking 2D platformer and not give LoS2 a chance.)
You'd think even the most oblivious of "modern gamers" would have the sense to read about MercurySteam's newest 3D hack n' slash title before dismissing its 2D, handheld spin-off. Regardless, porting Mirror of Fate to consoles isn't a very wise choice, judging from its lackluster reception and its poor sales.
I am personally more interested in LoS2 than either of the previous two games, but I don't see it sell a lot. I don't see reviews being great either. Possibly in the 6.5-7.5 range at best.
I'm seeing something in the 8+ range, with 9+ reviews if it's pulled off right. It definitely has that potential.
My main concern for LOS2 is it's release date. I think there will be a lot of new PS4 and XBOX ONE owners who won't want to buy a game made for the old gen consoles. I think a lot of gamers will be wanting to spend their money on games for their new consoles. If anything, I think this will affect the sales of LOS2.
Still, I'm predicting it will do as well as it's predecessor, if not a little better.
By the time LoS2 is released, most gamers will still be using their old consoles. If anything, it's a smarter choice to keep it on current-gen. And it won't be the only franchise to have done so.
But Julius? I thought we already had Victor?
I'll have nightmares about what strange "plot twist" Cox will be trying out next... If he does to Julius what he did to Trevor, I think I'll collapse.