Topic: 168 runs with Castlevania Harmony of Despair and still no Sonic Boots!!!!

[Esco]

That video I posted pretty much shows that putting on full luck does help, to an extent.

Now it might sound like I'm contradicting myself on the following part, but bare with me:

Some don't understand is that it's luck; it will never be guaranteed.
Just like anything to do with luck in pretty much any other game, it's out of your jurisdiction.

In any game that has luck, you can have 99 % luck and yet you won't get what you want because of that 1%.
You can have the shittiest luck, but by a stroke of chance(lol), you get what you were('nt) looking for.

Whether you feel it helps you out or not, that's up to you.
Running full luck obviously increases your luck.
That's what it's about. But increasing your luck isn't going to guarantee you that item.


And honestly, you can't say use statistics with luck because, once again, it's luck; it's completely out of the players jurisdiction. Even trying to manipulate luck won't guarantee anything.

Just because that guy ran that level 25 times and got good drops doesn't mean that every 25 runs you'll be getting a rare item. It obviously helped having luck because he got good items, but were never guaranteed.

Running full luck helped me get my 2nd miser ring in 2 runs.
That doesn't mean I can say "we'll i got my miser rings, so statistically..."

That's why, with anything luck based, it will always be anecdotal.

This post has several things wrong with it.  You can most assuredly use statistics with luck based outcomes like in this game to compare low luck vs high luck results. Saying you cannot makes no sense what so ever. However to do this, you would need a medium to high # of runs, with a proper set of controls in place to ensure that the data you produced would have a minimal margin of error.

Also saying that someone ran the game 25 times and got good drops, and that luck obviously helped him could also be incorrect, as he could have then ran it 50 more times and got nothing. If by luck, you don't mean "in game programmed luck", but a real life "he got lucky" type of thing, than that is a different story though.

Your last statement about anything luck based being anectodal in reference to a programmed game is 100% incorrect for too many reasons to list here. But to give one example of why I say this, let's use SOTN: raising luck high enough will VISIBLY affect drop rate, to the point where very rare items become extremely common. And if we then lower it down again, the rare drops become rare again. We can repeat this process COUNTLESS times, but the result would be very obvious in the end. Thus producing scientific evidence, vs anectodal evidence that luck does indeed affect drop rate.

However, since we all have no way to raise the luck stat in Castlevania HOD to an extremely high amount, we are all stuck with purely anectodal evidence to support luck theories in reference to chest items.  Though from my own personal view as of late I have began trying luck runs, since my former process of trying to acquire several items I still wanted did not seem to be very effective.

[Mcchiggen]

This post has several things wrong with it.  You can most assuredly use statistics with luck based outcomes like in this game to compare low luck vs high luck results. Saying you cannot makes no sense what so ever. However to do this, you would need a medium to high # of runs, with a proper set of controls in place to ensure that the data you produced would have a minimal margin of error.

Also saying that someone ran the game 25 times and got good drops, and that luck obviously helped him could also be incorrect, as he could have then ran it 50 more times and got nothing. If by luck, you don't mean "in game programmed luck", but a real life "he got lucky" type of thing, than that is a different story though.

Your last statement about anything luck based being anectodal in reference to a programmed game is 100% incorrect for too many reasons to list here. But to give one example of why I say this, let's use SOTN: raising luck high enough will VISIBLY affect drop rate, to the point where very rare items become extremely common. And if we then lower it down again, the rare drops become rare again. We can repeat this process COUNTLESS times, but the result would be very obvious in the end. Thus producing scientific evidence, vs anectodal evidence that luck does indeed affect drop rate.

However, since we all have no way to raise the luck stat in Castlevania HOD to an extremely high amount, we are all stuck with purely anectodal evidence to support luck theories in reference to chest items.  Though from my own personal view as of late I have began trying luck runs, since my former process of trying to acquire several items I still wanted did not seem to be very effective.

How can you use statistics on something that's random and inconsistent?

For any of those that played Halo 3: that's like saying you can use statistical data as to where the random spread of the BR will go this time. It was programmed to be random. Even shooting at close range(which is the equivalent of increasing your luck in an rpg) never guaranteed that your shots would always go straight.

Now if it was something like cs1.6 where spread(the random factor) had a set pattern, then you would have the right to use statistical data for something that's random.

You even said it yourself: on SOTN it will increase it, but never to the point that it always guaranteed a drop. You can't say: "ok, this time when I kill the schmoo, I'm going to get a Crissaegrim drop." Though it obviously helped, it's still anecdotal because it doesn't have a set pattern, thus rendering it inconsistent. If something is inconsistent, then statistics won't really help because there's always that random percentage number that completely nullifies any statistical data.

If it was something like Nagumo stated: where each frame has an item and it depends on which frame you kill a monster, and luck increased those frames, then obviously it's a consistent system for the game, but not for the player to manipulate 100 % because of how it's impossible for any human to count every frame.


Point being is that, that would be a consistent system where you can use statistical data.

[Esco]

How can you use statistics on something that's random and inconsistent?

Because to start there are no truly random events. What we consider random is akin to how the term magic used to be used: to explain something we do not understand. We use the word random, when we consider something beyond our control to the point where we cannot adequately influence the outcome. With that being said, one of the major uses of statistics is in fact to compare data on things that seem "random" in the hopes of finding some kind of pattern.

For any of those that played Halo 3: that's like saying you can use statistical data as to where the random spread of the BR will go this time. It was programmed to be random. Even shooting at close range(which is the equivalent of increasing your luck in an rpg) never guaranteed that your shots would always go straight.

Now if it was something like cs1.6 where spread(the random factor) had a set pattern, then you would have the right to use statistical data for something that's random.

I do not know those games and cannot comment on them.

Though it obviously helped, it's still anecdotal because it doesn't have a set pattern, thus rendering it inconsistent. If something is inconsistent, then statistics won't really help because there's always that random percentage number that completely nullifies any statistical data.

That is not correct; the fact that I can prove that high luck greatly increases the chance of a drop is a consistent fact and pattern in itself. One that is easily proven using statistical data in a comparison in item farming between very low luck, and extremely high luck. Random numbers do not at all nullify statistical data; if that was the case than the majority of statistical data in existence would instantly become null and void. It CAN cause outliers on the data, or shift the curve of the graph, however with a big enough sample size, this would not be an issue, and would have a minor effect.

Now if that was NOT the case, and these "random occurrences" were in a great # than it would in fact prove that our findings are inconsistent, and thus most likely incorrect. Hence why I put little stock behind the idea of luck affecting chest drops.

If it was something like Nagumo stated: where each frame has an item and it depends on which frame you kill a monster, and luck increased those frames, then obviously it's a consistent system for the game, but not for the player to manipulate 100 % because of how it's impossible for any human to count every frame.

Manipulating ANYTHING such as this to be 100% success rate is highly unlikely. Nor did I ever say or infer (even in my SOTN example above) that it could be, so I do not see how this is relevant.

Point being is that, that would be a consistent system where you can use statistical data.

Inconsistent data, many times becomes consistent data when statistical analysis is applied to it, and that is as I have stated one of the most fundamental uses for it. That is obviously not always the case, but in a case like this where statistics cannot show a consistent or obvious pattern, even over 1000's of trials done by many people, then there probably is not one. Of course this assumes that luck is the only thing that we can use to affect chest drops. Not score, performance, time, etc.

The problem we have is that there are a LOT of variables to take into account, and I doubt anybody will want to run the 1000's of trials necessary, and perform various experiments with these factors to provide statistical data that will actually be accurate and conclusive. I know I sure as hell ain't doing it! 

[DarkPrinceAlucard]

Listen to this guys.

I spent the entire day yesterday farming for the Sonic boots once again.

Today I decided to try to get me a theif ring to see if the whole luck thing actually helps.

I spent 7 hours straight farming on the Puppet Master stage Hard for a theif ring and got NOTHING.

I finally read somewhere that you can also get a their ring on normal chapter 11.

On my first freaken try I got a theif ring.

And on my second one I got Ebisu Raiment which is notoriously known for being on of the hardest items to get in this game.

After experiancing this it has now become apparent that this freaken game likes to f*&k with players in a cruel way lol.

EDIT

Just did yet another run and got a second theif ring..

Wow...

Why can't the sonic boots be this easy to get?

EDIT2

Well folks it seems that Kamui Zero was completely right.

As I have been saying for days now, I've ran this level countless times inorder to get sonic boots.

Today I was finally able to get Ebisu Raiment and 2 theif rings.

Both these items are said to increase the appearance of rare items.

I put both of them on along with the rest of my luck gear and in 3 runs I got Sonic Boots!

I must admit I was wrong here.

Thanks for the advice guys.

[Esco]

Interesting side note to darkprincealucard's success story above.... I set up a LOCAL GAME with 3 players (using 3 controllers on my system) in Chapter 7 with soma, charlotte, and yoko. They all had the best luck stats they could have, and each had 2 thief rings and a ebisu raiment.

Within about 6-7 tries like this of soma running the stage alone and beating the boss, I received a miser ring and robe decollete. I had played this stage 170 tries before that and only gotten 1 miser ring. Funny little coincidence, that now has me wondering if MAYBE konami didn't take into account how drops are affected when more than one player is playing on ONE system.

then again who knows... I could have just gotten very lucky. 

[Ridureyu]

I still have yet to see a single Custos glyph, and yet I soldier on.

The drop rates in this game (and skill levelling points, ugh) are way, way, way too low. It's as if the programmers assumed we were playing an MMO.  That said, HoD is like a party - it's so much fun that I really don't mind playing the same stages again (yet), I just wish stuff would drop more often.

[BigBaby03]

Konami said that luck plays a huge role in rare item drops.  The gentleman who made the comment with the theif rings is correct, according to the gambler glasses.  However, in multiplayer, only the luck of the hunter who gets the last kill will be applied to the chest, regardless of who opens it.  I've heard several theories about speed, no damage, etc. however, every rare item I've attained (2 valmanways, winged boots, and drac tunic) have been on chapter 6 hard with one val equip and a thief ring, and get this, bare knuckles.  It worked for me.  I'm farming succubus souls to be able to do ch 9 hard with a bare knuckle and val and fish head, and i'll let you know the results. 

[knightmere]

Konami said that luck plays a huge role in rare item drops.  The gentleman who made the comment with the theif rings is correct, according to the gambler glasses.  However, in multiplayer, only the luck of the hunter who gets the last kill will be applied to the chest, regardless of who opens it.  I've heard several theories about speed, no damage, etc. however, every rare item I've attained (2 valmanways, winged boots, and drac tunic) have been on chapter 6 hard with one val equip and a thief ring, and get this, bare knuckles.  It worked for me.  I'm farming succubus souls to be able to do ch 9 hard with a bare knuckle and val and fish head, and i'll let you know the results. 

I believe this is thread necromancy.

[GuyStarwind]

I'm trying to get the sonic boots myself. I have one thief ring and the ebisu raiment. I'm also trying to get Simon's cloak. I 'm telling you I can not find that thing for the life of me.

[knightmere]

If you got the PS3 version just do local coop with 4 players and deck them out with max luck gear.  You should get any rare drops much faster this way. For Simon's cloak just have a party of 4 whip users and you should get it very quickly.