Topic: The talk of the day...

[Mooning Freddy]

...Is war. It seems imminent and inevitable. Like the doomsday clock in Watchmen, I feel like the days are a countdown to the attack, the clash and what would be its aftermath. 
12 O'clock is when those jets would strike. 1 after midnight is when those new coalition tanks would roll in. It could unfold much later on, but I suppose it would have follow eventually.

The media is flooded with information about it every day now. People are no longer talking about IF but about WHEN. Some criticize it, some are calling for tougher measures to prevent it, but it seems fewer and fewer people believe it could be avoided.
A dangerous game of chicken played by many players, and nobody wants to turn away.

It's funny how now everyone is angry and shouting about how the West could have prevented it 15 or 20 years ago but chose to ignore it. And now it's too late.

Iran. Iran is a strong state, and a war with it would be probably harder than Iraq or Afghanistan. Iran is Mideastern Evil Empire. They assist Assad in the Civil war in Syria. They provide the major funding to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Their agents are working hard in Gaza, Egypt and all across the middle east. Everybody hates Iran, the West and Sunni states alike. The Ayatollahs don't seem to mind, though. Obama is screeching his teeth. America is in debt and he doesn't want another war. Yet if he's reelected, he knows he'd have to lead the troops.

I'm not scared. It's just that annoying anticipation to the boom that could come any minute. So I live my life, trying not to think about it. But I can't. It's right in my face.

[X]

Yeah, when peoples' tensions run high then the s**t hits the fan. Hopefully it won't be as bad as you think it will be. But if it is then all I can say is hang in there and do what it takes to get through it. No law abiding, peace-loving citizen wants a war in their own back yard if they can help it.

[TheCruelAngel]

Yeah, tensions are running high in east Asia right now as well with the disputes between China and Japan (and kinda Taiwan) over the Senkaku islands. I mean, there's crazy mass rioting going on in China where they are attacking and destroying anything Japanese (products, companies, etc.) and being egged on by the state to do so.

It's actually really terrifying, since China also just got their first aircraft carrier, has the largest army in the world and I think understands this and is starting to push their muscle around to see how far they can push everyone until the breaking point.

All of this because the Prime Minister of Japan bought the islands from the private owner to circumvent the Governor of Tokyo from buying the islands.  I hope this will get resolved peacefully, but with how the Chinese government has been handling the situation and with how volatile the relationship is with Japan and all of their neighbors, things aren't looking well.

[Lelygax]

So you are saying that someone from Japan buyed some islands to circumvent other person from Japan of buying it? What it have to do with China? You know that Tokyo is in Japan right? I atleast think that it is a "yes" since I remember you saying things from Japan frequently (I even think that you live in Japan lol)

[Ratty]

I refuse to believe World War 3 cannot be avoided. For such a conflict with Iran or between China and Japan would quickly escalate into. Something like this- Israel declares war on Iran, America and Britain quickly follow suite, North Korea declares war on US/UK etc. as a result. Japan uses this as an excuse to declare war on China with it's ties to North Korea, the US/UK etc. all declare war on China to honor their allegiance with Japan. Or it happens in reverse with Japan and China going at it and Vietnam/the Phillipines get into it as well as the US and UK on the side of Japan.

I will continue to hope such a conflict is avoided despite the "My big brother America will beat you up!" agitations of Israel and the historical animosity between Japan and China. It's not a war that the major powers, including America, could win without the use of nuclear weapons. It would almost certainly be the bloodiest conflict in history with Nuclear, Biological and chemical weapons used by all sides against civilian populations.

[TheCruelAngel]

Yeah, the PM of Japan (more or less ruler of Japan) bought (or still considering buying them? I haven't read anything completely clear on this) the islands to prevent a city in Japan's Governor (city ruler) from buying the islands. The point was that if Ishihara (Governor of Tokyo who is known to stir sh*t for the sake of stirring sh*t) had bought the islands, they would then become part of Tokyo, despite being thousands of miles away. So as a means of preventing Ishihara from acquiring the islands for Tokyo, PM Noda acquired them for the whole of Japan and could then delegate their governance to a different prefecture, like Okinawa.

There's a long disputed history with the islands and ownership, it's a hot topic in east Asian politics since it effects the big three (China, Japan and South Korea). Below are some links with follow up reading, I won't argue that I have a biased view on all of this, being Japanese and such, but China's reaction is still ghastly no matter how you look at it.

http://www.chijihon.metro.tokyo.jp/senkaku_english.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senkaku_Islands_dispute
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_China_anti-Japanese_demonstrations

[Phoenix7786]

Yeah, tensions are running high in east Asia right now as well with the disputes between China and Japan (and kinda Taiwan)

I had a history professor who immigrated from China. That guy was awesome. I liked him to much I ended up using him in as many electives as I could. But he talked to us about Taiwan, and he was mortally afraid of what will happen during our generation's time. During a course on the history of China, he stressed all semester about how they absolutely despise not being a unified country. When you look at the various Dynasties during China's history, you will always notice a pattern of people, rulers, and warlords doing as much as they can to keep the country as one. People who break off, or secede, or try to start another Dynasty either get obliterated or succeed in erasing the old.

He emphasized that when Taiwan broke off, it was a bitter blow to the Chinese pride. This one small little tiny island dared to break from its Mother country (which we all know was because Taiwan is all that's left of Capitalist China after it was defeated by Communist China), and then the further indignity when the U.S. offered its full protection to Taiwan. To him, China has been patiently biding up its time. It has developed its technology, cultivated its economy, and raised its army. With the U.S. in an economic slump, with people exhausted from a nearly-fruitless decade of conflict in the Middle East, he is increasingly worried China will just openly invade Taiwan. It will stress about the insignificance of such a tiny little scrap of land, and coax the U.S. out of a high-danger confrontation with China, especially since the U.S. is in no shape to enter into a major war like that. He talked about the Korean war, when China's intervention (although they had some Soviet support) was able to halt the U.N. and push them back.

With the way alliances, agreements, and political negotiations are, he stressed the same thing that Ratty stressed, about allies of countries declaring war and everything entering into a state of Hell. My old professor is absolutely convinced that China will try to quash Tawian once and for all. Taiwan will plead to the U.S. for aid. The U.S. will either enter the war, involving its allies--which will cause China's allies to subsequently enter the war--or cow down and quietly allow Taiwan to be absorbed. If China gains that small victory, what will they try to do next?

I hope I'm not coming along as doomsy or pessimistic, but I just wanted to throw my 2 cents in. The Cold War showed us that countries are able and willing to avoid nuclear war, knowing the mutual decimation that will result. It's my hope that the fear of nuclear radiation, fallout, and decimation still exist.

[Highwind Dragoon]

You know china's gonna want to invade resource-rich siberia next if that happens. 

EDIT: Raging Dragon scenario for Test of Time.

http://forums.civfanatics.com/downloads.php?do=file&id=12766

LoL, that might actually happen now.  : -X

[Flame]

Kinda sad when a third World War is a matter of "when" and the tipping points to it are extremely sensitive. AKA anything could set it off. I mean, the first one was set off by the assassination of ONE man. There are far higher issues that could trigger a third. And people know that if there is a third, it could very well be a nuclear war. Considering Nuclear power seems to be well, the biggest possible trigger here, with Iran wanting Nuclear and everyone trying to either stop it or limit it severely so that they cannot make weapons.

I fear for the prospect of the dreaded Nuclear chain.

[Ratty]

Kinda sad when a third World War is a matter of "when" and the tipping points to it are extremely sensitive. AKA anything could set it off. I mean, the first one was set off by the assassination of ONE man. There are far higher issues that could trigger a third. And people know that if there is a third, it could very well be a nuclear war. Considering Nuclear power seems to be well, the biggest possible trigger here, with Iran wanting Nuclear and everyone trying to either stop it or limit it severely so that they cannot make weapons.

I fear for the prospect of the dreaded Nuclear chain.

I'm about as much of a dyed-in-the-wool cynic as you're likely to ever find, but I refuse to accept that this war is inevitable. The only people who would want it are those who don't understand the implications and those who have accepted it as inevitable and want it over with. Let's not forget that during the Cold War, WW3 seemed inevitable for 50 years and it never happened, because cooler heads prevailed and did not accept "the inevitable". 

There's no just "getting it over with" with war in general, let alone such a massive one. People celebrated at the outbreak of WW1 because they thought it would be a quick few months war that would settle the tension in Europe, it wound up devastating the place and leading directly to WW2 with a crippled and economically exploited Germany being susceptible to fascism. War rarely "settles" anything, especially in our modern era. Hell the way that Britain and France carved up the Ottoman Empire after WW1 is one of the major causes of the unrest in the middle east today, and the two wars America just spent a decade fighting.

[TheouAegis]

World War III will come around when we have working mechas. Front Mission will become a reality and the guys that made those games will be revered as the Nostradamuses of the end of the 20th century. (Seriously, the series is so politically deep it's scary. Poor outlook for Africa and EU, too...)

[Mooning Freddy]

Nice discussion, guys! Especially Phoenix.
As for world war... Woah, woah, wait a minute. I think people keep seeing wars as tragedies and miscalculations than what they really are: results of hostilities and statemen's policies. Personally, I do not believe that a major war in the near east could trigger a world war. The world of today is too complicated and very different from what it used to be a century ago. Would North Korea see America busy in the middle east and decide to use the opportunity to invade the South? I don't know. But I don't think so. North Korea is still a poor and weak country. Even despite their nuclear capabilities.

China invading Taiwan? Today's China is not Mao's China. We have to consider whether the hostilities between China and Taiwan are great enough for China to invade it, risking destroying the strong economic relations with the West.

Then you have MAD. MAD is a joker and we never know how exactly it works. Morgenthau said MAD is a restraining power that prevents wars. And yet, the possibility of two nuclear powers fighting using only conventional warfare exists.
The only reason Israel want to attack Iran is because it can't tolerate a radical, terror-supporting country joining the MAD club.
The MAD club has some real good benefits. You can theoretically do whatever you want without having to pay consequences.
There is also the fear of an irrational leader using the bomb without caring about his own people's destruction.

[Lumi Kløvstad]

Funny. I've talked to some blokes from Iran, and they seem pretty stable. A war probably won't happen, if for no other reason than it's an expense neither side really wants to deal with. Oh, there will be talk and threats and blah blah fearmongering from the American media. That's how they make money. Calm and good news doesn't sell. Panic and bad news does. They will do everything they can to hype this fear as far as it will stretch, but wars these days do not start easily. There have been fewer wars in the past 100 years than in the previous hundred, and it's starting to slow down even further. If it came to a nuclear war, the United States would leave Iran a smoking ruin. If it came to a conventional war, Iran's military trying to fight off coalition forces would face a logistical nightmare. If it came to a war of attrition, they'd run out of bullets before we ran out of people.

There is always room for blunders to ruin the war, but Iran has too much to risk, too little to gain, and they know it. So they'll threat. They'll shout. They'll put up a tough facade, because pride demands it. But even if they won the war, they'd have lost almost everything else that matters anyway.

The United States meanwhile, will not willingly fight due to our finances unless provoked. A war might be good for our economy, but ONLY if Congress issued a formal declaration of war, which would reroute American industry to providing for it; it's what brought us out of the Depression after WWII, because winning the war was THE priority, and every level of American industry and society was involved.

But that won't happen. And a "police action" (which is what the war on Terror was) is economically unfeasible.

America can't afford to launch a proactive attack, and Iran can't afford to face a retaliatory strike.

It's lose-lose, and so I don't think it will happen.