If the fans were in charge of writing, the quality of the games would skyrocket, almost overnight.
Why?
Fans are
far more dedicated than the guys who officially handle this stuff. And while that makes for an incredibly productive fanbase that exceeds anything I've seen short of the Whovian and Brony communities, this is also the source of all the canon's shortcomings. Written as a summary meant to explain things in brief, the canon is perfectly serviceable. Maybe a little cliche'd, but it gets the job done.
However, it is when we place it under the microscope of examination, and question specific details that the whole thing starts to fracture, and it breaks apart more the closer you zoom in. This isn't any one person's fault -- Castlevania's timeline has always been rickety beyond belief. But, early games don't line up their fine print with later games.
I point out, once again, Dracula's Curse as an example as it has the clearest overlap with real history (which is useful as a reference). Set in 1476, Tralph (hah) Belmont slays Dracula. Real world Dracula died in 1476. The insinuation there is clear: that Vlad Tepes III WAS the same Dracula that we fight in all the games, and TrevorRalph was the reason Dracula *actually* died and the real world history was a Church cover story. Furthermore, you can excuse Dracula's later resurrections from not appearing in the historical record as the result of "cleaners" who scrub the evidence from history.
(Probably this guy and his minions)It doesn't really follow history to the letter, but it makes a good story. But later games don't jibe with this telling, and furthermore, that schism goes perpetually unaddressed.
You could argue, in fact, that the topic of this very thread is the fault line upon which the whole canon rests. Press it the wrong way and watch as everything falls apart in a catastrophic pile that makes the movie San Andreas look tame. If Mathias IS Vlad, then a lot of things about Drac's personality start making sense. If he ISN'T, then, well, someone has a lot to explain now.
This to my mind is why it's never been directly addressed, merely implied one way or another to the point where no answer reliably exists. No writer wanted to be the one to "push the button", and their hesitance has created one of the largest continuity snarls ever seen in any franchise.
And here's what I'm getting at.
This snarl still exists. We're debating it now. It will continue to go unaddressed, even if the series started back up tomorrow. The same hesitance by official authors that created this problem will persist, and the status quo will remain unchanged.
There is simply no canon answer to this kind of question, and it's unlikely there ever will be.
I'll continue to argue points based on real history because that is enjoyable for me and it allows me to look at the series from a new viewpoint that wasn't considered by the authors, but I'm not trying for definitive answers anymore; I fully accept that it won't happen.
Hence, why bother worrying about these things? Go for whatever makes a better story for you.
Do what brings you joy.
Personally, with the evidence presented in Dracula's Curse as my guide, I think Mathias IS Vlad Dracula (and his father, and his father's father, etc.). Others are sure to disagree.
But hey, it's just a game, and like I said before.
Hakuna Matata.