The theory's instability dictates that Vlad III's chances of outwitting Mathias to get the Stone are practically zero.
[...]
Unless I can be rationally convinced of otherwise, it's a crap--but admittedly slightly interesting to ponder for a moment or two--theory that makes no sense purely on the basis of it assuming one character somehow lost all his insanely high intellect and tactical mind and forgetting how his own trick works.
You couldn't beat a chess master with a move he invented; he'd see it coming and know exactly how to counter it, so why the hell wouldn't the same principle apply here?
I'm late in jumping into this thread, but I just wanna say that the whole "Mathias wouldn't be beaten by his own tactic" thing doesn't seem convincing to me. Nor does the "hundreds-of-years-old vampire master tactician can't be beaten by other tactician" thing. I want to remind you that Mathias is a guy who gets beaten left and right the EXACT SAME WAY in nearly every game. The Belmonts are all young adults when they fight Drac/Mathias, in the 19-24 age range. And every time, they defeat him.
Dracula loses every single battle he's in since first meeting Trevor Belmont in the exact same way every time he's revived. He sits in his throne room and gets beat by people who aren't even 25 yet. Heck, he was even beaten by Jonathan and Charlotte, both of whom I believe aren't even 20-years-old yet, AND he had Death at his side. Yes, he had barely been revived, so he was still weak. But again, he's a master tactician who has existed for CENTURIES, and he has the Grim Reaper by his side, and he was beaten by a headstrong brawn-over-brain Jonathan Morris and the even-younger Charlotte Aulin. Yes, Charlotte is a very smart girl with magical abilities, but Charlotte is 16, and I doubt her intelligence, experience, and magical capabilities even come CLOSE to what Dracula can do.
That being said, this happens all the time. Thus, I can't really find those two arguments convincing. Vlad III, based on historical evidence alone, appears to have tactical genius and an intellectual mind that the likes of Charlotte couldn't even comprehend. Yet Dracula/Mathias himself was defeated by these two young adults, even with his high level of intellect, magical capabilities, experience, and Death himself at his side.
I don't agree with the whole "Vlad III stole the Crimson Stone from Mathias Cronqvist" theory, but I'm trying to say that it could potentially hold some water due to the fact that Mathias himself has been outsmarted by even the likes of Jonathan and Charlotte.
Basically, what I'm trying to say is: No, it makes zero logical sense as to how a master tactician with hundreds of years of experience and magical capabilities could possibly lose his powers and most precious possession to another tactician who, despite being brilliant as well, does not have what Mathias has. But it also makes zero sense as to how Mathias, with all of that, could be beaten constantly by young adults who definitely lack the experience, knowledge, and magical prowess that he has.