Topic: Dave Cox Busted

[cecil-kain]

Vgchartz has been proven to be inaccurate on more than a few instances.  By now it's common knowledge like how it's common knowledge that the Earth is round.

So when you say "Prove it" it's like asking us to prove to you that the Earth is round.
It's really not opinion by now.
However, if you do want proof, I'm sure people with a little more time on their hands than I do right now will throw many examples at you... which you will ignore, I'm guessing.

If it's common knowledge, then it *really* shouldn't be that hard to prove.  Group-think and heresay just doesn't cut it.  I could tell you that Wikipedia can't be trusted because I've seen a dozen articles with inaccurate information, but the fact remains that Wikipedia is still a vast resource of legitimate information --in spite of its flaws.

I'm sure with the tens of thousands of games vgchartz has listed, irregularities will pop up from time to time.  But when those mistakes are made, that's hardly an excuse to write off the whole site unless you're accusing them of systemic fraud.  So far, the biggest problem I've found with vgchartz is a lack of transparency with their methodology and sourcing, but trade secrecy hardly constitutes fraud.

Having said that, it comes down to "Use inaccurate data" vs. "no data".
Which do you think is the better choice?

Depends on the margin of error. Even rounding off the figures spoils 100% accuracy.

Are there really no other methods of getting data that will yield a more professional, accurate assessment?

I've been looking into this for a couple months now.  Like I said before, I'm working on a much larger report... NPD appears to be the primary resource routinely cited by gaming media --unfortunately their resources are not publicly available.  And even so, it appears their data is regional instead of global.

[Flame]

Here's some proof for you to ignore.

The first and obvious one:

They often have no sources to back up their sales figures. if there is no source, then where did it come from? A birdie?

Second.
They themselves admit on their about us page, that they make, quote: "ground-breaking weekly charts based on estimates from retail partners and passive consumer surveys." They make GUESSES based on partial info. Not official info from the dev. Of course when official numbers DO come out, they are quick to change their charts to match them.

Third.
Their accuracy, while sometimes impressive for guesswork, is still not 100% accurate. which means that while it might be easier to estimate sales for a AAA best seller game or console, when you get to smaller games, or not as successful games, it becomes much harder to make accurate guesses.

Also, considering some of their sources for sales, (retailers and surveys) You can't help but see why they would be inaccurate. Especially retailers, who would prefer their numbers be higher or lower, and therefore can lead to inconsistencies. And even the big stuff is not 100%

here's a legit copypaste of their self admitted methodology, right from their site.

VGChartz Methodology
Data-Collection Methodology

All sales estimates on VGChartz are arrived at via a number of proprietrary and ever-developing methods:

    Passively polling end users to find out what games they are currently purchasing and playing
    Polling retail partners to find out what games and hardware they are selling
    Using statistical trend fitting and historical data for similar games
    Studying resell prices to determine consumer demand and inventory levels
    Consulting with publishers and manufacturers to find out how many units they are introducing into the channel

do note that last one. they might contact publishers not for sales numbers, but how many units were introduced into the system.

[Sindra]

In fact, I thought this thread was going to be about the claims Cox has made over the years and how a number of them have been false. Instead it's a thread sitting on VGChartz sales, which are even less trustworthy than what Cox has to say.

I too thought this. I was far more interested in that and it would be a great read with more weight to it.

Cecil, I'd love for this all to be 100% true and a real zinger to illustrate the error in Cox's bloated ego about LoS's impact on the series. However, if the data is inconclusive and inaccurate.....no matter how much or how little inaccurate it may be....it immediately discredits the hard work you put into compiling all this information. I actually feel bad that you went to all that hard work of getting all of this information, and it's going to lack credibility no matter how strongly you try to justify the findings. Being completely open and honest about the high likelihood of inaccuracy does not make it sound any more noble. It makes it sound like you wasted your time and you don't yet realize it.

I'd say hold onto all that you found, and do your damnedest to dig up more substantiated numbers before toting this any further. If you can indeed prove the data with far less room for error or doubt, it will result in far more support than dropping inconclusive data and trying to pretty it up with a lot of jargon.

I wish you luck, sir.

[cecil-kain]

Here's some proof for you to ignore.

Please see the following....

The first and obvious one:

They often have no sources to back up their sales figures. if there is no source, then where did it come from? A birdie?

Anonymous sources do not necessarily indicate false information.  Does it make vgchartz look good?  No, not really --but it doesn't make them wrong either.

Second.
They themselves admit on their about us page, that they make, quote: "ground-breaking weekly charts based on estimates from retail partners and passive consumer surveys." They make GUESSES based on partial info. Not official info from the dev. Of course when official numbers DO come out, they are quick to change their charts to match them.

This is where context is important.  We're not talking about games that were released last month and still selling several thousands copies per day.  Educated guesswork and projections are perfectly reasonable for major releases fresh on the shelf, but that's not even close to what we're talking about here.  Lords of Shadow has been out for almost 3 years and thrown in the bargain bin a long time ago.  We are talking about *archival* sales data that has had plenty of time to be verified.

Third.
Their accuracy, while sometimes impressive for guesswork, is still not 100% accurate. which means that while it might be easier to estimate sales for a AAA best seller game or console, when you get to smaller games, or not as successful games, it becomes much harder to make accurate guesses.

Also, considering some of their sources for sales, (retailers and surveys) You can't help but see why they would be inaccurate. Especially retailers, who would prefer their numbers be higher or lower, and therefore can lead to inconsistencies. And even the big stuff is not 100%

here's a legit copypaste of their self admitted methodology, right from their site.do note that last one. they might contact publishers not for sales numbers, but how many units were introduced into the system.

Considering they're reporting retail sales, it makes sense to trust the retailers up front and then verify with publishers on the back end.  Guesswork and projections are never 100% accurate with a moving target.  I'm surprised you're not trying to crucify them for reporting weekly instead of minute by minute.  Good grief...

Anyway the invitation remains open, if you can provide more reliable sales data. I'll gladly correct the report.

[Jorge D. Fuentes]

I'm with Sindra on this.  And I also wish you luck...

[Inccubus]

I too look forward to seeing this go farther. Only thing I can add is to realize there will never be 100% accuracy for this kind of report. Just the same as the retailers could fudge their numbers for their own benefit, there is nothing stopping the publisher or even the original creators from doing the same thing. So no one with any sense should ever really expect 100% accuracy. Best advice I can give is to cast as wide a net as you can with as many sources as you can find. Hell, if you haven't try contacting Konami, publishers and retailers directly. Worst thing they could do is not comment.

[Pfil]

I think it can't be proved, but SotN surely is the best seller in the Castlevania history, with all its ports and downloads.
So, although the report is based on dubious sources, I like where it goes, not to mention that Cox is a proven liar that mocked all of us many times with false statements, so all the praise on his game could as well be just another set of lies from him.

[Kamirine]

In fact, I thought this thread was going to be about the claims Cox has made over the years and how a number of them have been false.

This, verbatim.  Though it's not entirely too late for someone to do such a thing, I suppose, if they wanted to spend the time doing it.

[Maedhros]

Isn't vgchartz know for fabricating (or guessing) sales numbers?

YES.

[Maedhros]

stopped reading there
We shouldn't need to correct you. You shouldn't be using VGchartz. Can't find sales numbers? that means Konami didn't release them. Don't go using made up "estimates". Either go full on professional and call em for it, or don't. You can't make a sales comparison report when you can't get accurate sales information. Cox can. Because he works for Konami and is privy to that kind of info.

The funny part:

The "official" NPD numbers aren't really high. The Euro numbers estimate from Neogaf show some very low numbers. Japan... pft, the series isn't even that relevant in Japan anyway...

What do WE KNOW is that the game shipped more than 1m copies. We don't know ANYTHING besides that.

I would love to see official numbers. But if I had to say, I don't really think that LoS is the most sold Castlevania game out there, AT ALL. One of the most? Yes. The most, nope.

[Maedhros]

Fair disclosure up front and throughout the article.  Vgcharts is currently the most comprehensive public source for this kind of information.  If their methodology is flawed and the data skewed, there's an open challenge for anyone willing to audit these figures and I'll gladly correct the report and eat my fair share of humble pie.  :-)

Their numbers are banned on Neogaf, Gametrailers, Gamespot, etc. Don't you think they have a reason for this?

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=444554
http://forums.n4g.com/tm.aspx?high=&m=200712&mpage=1#200735
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VG_Chartz

VGChartz provides tools for data analysis and charting and regular written analysis of the data referencing major news in the video gaming industry. Sales figures on VGChartz are based on estimates extrapolated from small retail samples.[4] While offering some information about their methodology through their website,[5] VGChartz does not publish any sources on how they get their data. Some sites, including Gamasutra and Wired News, have questioned the reliability of the information presented by the site.[4][6] VGChartz has defended the credibility and reliability of its sales data,[7] often comparing their numbers with the ones published by NPD Group,[8] although some charts have been retroactively adjusted to better match NPD's monthly reports.[4][9]

If you look on Neogaf, you can find for topics full of their bullshit practices there.

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EDIT: Gaaaaaaah, sorry for triple posting, I thought the forum would merge the posts automatically.

[Foffy]

Their numbers are banned on Neogaf, Gametrailers, Gamespot, etc. Don't you think they have a reason for this?

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=444554
http://forums.n4g.com/tm.aspx?high=&m=200712&mpage=1#200735
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VG_Chartz

If you look on Neogaf, you can find for topics full of their bullshit practices there.

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EDIT: Gaaaaaaah, sorry for triple posting, I thought the forum would merge the posts automatically.

NeoGAF bans the use of VGChartz sales numbers when it comes to sales discussions because of how inaccurate they are. That should tell you something..

[Gunlord]

Ok, I have to ask, out of personal interest mainly, if VGchartz is unreliable, are there any other sources for sales data you guys would recommend? I started a new blog recently and I may put some "video game industry" posts up there eventually, so I'd like the data they contain to be as accurate as possible. Would contacting the companies directly, like Konami, be able to give me good info, at least if they keep records? Do they accept phone calls or emails, generally?

[Maedhros]

Ok, I have to ask, out of personal interest mainly, if VGchartz is unreliable, are there any other sources for sales data you guys would recommend? I started a new blog recently and I may put some "video game industry" posts up there eventually, so I'd like the data they contain to be as accurate as possible. Would contacting the companies directly, like Konami, be able to give me good info, at least if they keep records? Do they accept phone calls or emails, generally?

NPD for America. Euro-charts for Europe. Media-Create, Famitsu and Dengeki for Japan.

All of them are posted on forums like Neogaf.

[uzo]

There is no one stop shop for sales numbers, and in a lot of cases sales numbers just don't exist publically.

I, as the head of my own video game company, have NO obligation to publicly post and or announce my sales reports. Most of the time you see sales reports from the companies themselves because companies want to brag about their success. You can guess at sales by some retailer reports, but you'll be very hard pressed to find a definitive accurate number.

Profit reports though, can be obtained by publically shared companies when they report to their investors.

@cecil-kain: You REALLY need to learn when to quit man. When 5 reputable people tell you no, don't insist it's yes. Demanding them to prove you wrong, when the information is so widely know, just makes you look like a dunce.